Article 2021年9月15日

能源价格:一年的变化…

Twelve months ago the energy world and general economic outlook looked very different to what it does today. 我们共同努力从Covid-19的影响中恢复, 大部分情况开始变得更加乐观. The economy looks more promising and most of us are learning to ‘live with the virus’. 有一件事没有改变, though – as energy consumers we are exposed to a diverse and complicated set of conditions which have resulted in energy prices rising from historically very low levels to unprecedented highs.

Tight conditions in the power market this summer and fears of gas shortages in the cooler months ahead have resulted in wholesale market prices rising at an alarming rate. In September last year, Day Ahead electricity was trading in the £40 to £57 /MWh range. 本月，它的交易价格从140英镑/兆瓦时升至540英镑/兆瓦时. Last year, the winter gas contract traded between 37p and 40p /therm in September. 这个月它的交易价格从128便士上升到197便士.

为背景, just a £1 /MWh change in forward prices can mean a 50 GWh annual electricity bill could increase by up to £50,000. The wholesale market forward price for next summer’s power has increased over £40 /MWh so far this year!

能源市场的“蝴蝶效应”

本周, the International 能源 Agency warned “it is becoming increasingly clear that weak investment, 疫情和未来石油需求增长的不确定性引发的, 已经影响到全球供应”. Covid-19肯定也对天然气和电力产生了影响, causing delays last year on the commissioning and investment in new energy supply projects, as well as mothballing production when US and European wholesale prices went negative or close to zero. 推迟对现有供应基础设施的维修, 比如挪威的天然气系统, 也减少了今天的可用供应量.  以及2021年天然气和电力需求的复苏, 在去年封锁期间下降了20%左右, 对能量平衡造成了额外的压力.

The effects of a changing climate are also responsible for some of the tightness in the market this year. 全球气温365asia体育已经影响了能源供应和需求, with many of these regions competing directly with the UK for energy supply (usually by means of Liquefied Natural 气体). A colder than normal second quarter in the northern hemisphere saw gas inventories depleted to their lowest levels in many years – Europe is still recovering with gas storage stocks at a ten year low. 在六月底, 北美最极端的热浪袭击了波特兰, 俄勒冈州达到46.6C，造成电力短缺和空调需求飙升. 巴基斯坦, 印度北部和中东部分地区也出现了热浪, 气温超过52摄氏度的地方. 巴西近一个世纪以来最严重的干旱正威胁着电力供应, 推高了该国的能源和食品价格. And sub-normal wind conditions this year across North West Europe has meant more fossil fuels are being burnt to keep the lights on. Electricity from wind generation in the UK has at times been running below 20% of what would be expected 为 time of year.

然而, it could be said that policies put in place to prevent climate change by decarbonisation are also partially to blame for today’s record high wholesale energy prices. 对太阳能和风能技术的投资得到广泛支持, 尤其是政府的政策, 但在化石燃料能源的投资方面，情况正好相反. 这是为了达到净零最终目标所必需的前进方向, but in the interim it exposes the electricity grid to periods of extreme tightness when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow. 气体, 还有少量的煤炭, will still be required as a back-up for intermittent renewable generation for several years to come, which exposes the UK market to high import costs 为se fossil fuels when they are scarce. Geo-politics has also been to blame for delays to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline bringing Russian gas to Germany, resulting in energy supply security being put at risk this winter (the opposite result from what was intended for this ‘political football’ of a project).

What can you do to protect your business against the economic impact of price hikes?

Your exposure to the price spikes gas and power markets are currently suffering may have been dampened by some well-timed forward hedges put in place last year. Or perhaps your consumption of wholesale electricity has been reduced through investing in your own generation (e.g. 太阳能光伏)或通过确保一个固定价格的电力购买协议(PPA). 如果是这样的话, then you should sleep a little easier through the winter ahead where price spikes even more extreme than we are suffering right now could become the norm. 如果你的保护和风险降低仅限于今年冬天, then perhaps there is something you can do now to protect yourself and your business further.

米铁能源的RMS365asia可以为采购和执行合同提供建议, 帮助你更智能地购买能源. 这可能会带来更好的定价时机. It might also mean you buy green gas or renewable power products to ensure your energy is low-carbon. 还有电力购买协议, PPA, you can purchase green energy directly from the source at a discount to the wholesale market. PPA’s offer businesses the ability to fix energy prices for 5 to 15 years which can protect your budget and reduce the exposure to volatile markets.

Investing in on-site renewable energy such as solar panels can give you more control over your electricity supply. 我们可以帮你. 碳 offsetting can reduce your carbon footprint with schemes such as tree planting. You can reduce your businesses energy usage by adopting energy optimization tactics such as ECM – 能源 Conservation Measures, BMS -企业管理系统. Our account managers can undertake the analysis required to determine the opportunities for your business. Ask Mitie 能源 about what new services we currently offer to support your energy management and procurement in the long term.

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